Election and Political Surveys
 
November 6, 2012 General Election Recap

St. Pete Polls had a good night tonight. Both with the accuracy of our recent poll results, and with how several of our clients performed in their races.

We used several different polling methods over the course of this election cycle, ending with the same early voter polling method that had been very accurate for us during the Republican Primary in August.

Every one of the races that we polled last week were accurate to the final election results within the margin of error for each poll, with several within 1% of the final candidate results.

Here is a breakdown of how we did predicting the results of the races that we covered during out last round of polling before the election:
  Undecided/no-vote percentages were removed and the candidate percentages were re-factored.
  For the Pinellas County poll results, the Early voter and Other likely voter percentages were combined to give total voter percentages.



U.S. President - Romney(R) vs. Obama(D)
                       Our Results(3.0% MoE):        Election Results:
  Mitt Romney:             49%                           49%
  Barack Obama:            49%                           50%
  Third Party:              2%                            1%

Two weeks before the election, our statewide early voter poll predicted the outcome of the Florida
Presidential race would be extremely close. Our results were within 1% of the final candidate totals.


U.S. Senate - Mack(R) vs. Nelson(D)
                       Our Results(3.0% MoE):        Election Results:
  Connie Mack:             45%                           42%
  Bill Nelson:             51%                           55%
  Third Party:              4%                            3%

Our statewide early voter poll predicted the winner of the U.S. Senate race. The final margin was
wider, at the edge of the margin of error of our poll.


Florida Supreme Court Justices Retention - Three Justices
                       Our Results(3.0% MoE):        Election Results:
  Yes for retention:       65%                           68%
  No for retention:        35%                           32%

Our statewide early voter poll predicted that all three of the Supreme Court Justices would easily
be retained. The final margin was within the margin of error of our poll.


U.S. Congress District 18 - West(R) vs. Murphy(D)
                       Our Results(3.7% MoE):        Election Results:
  Allen West:             50%                           50%
  Patrick Murphy:         50%                           50%

Our earlier active voter and registered voter polls had both showed significant leads for West. 
The early voter poll showed a much more significant cross-over of Republicans voting for Murphy.


U.S. Congress District 22 - Hasner(R) vs. Frankel(D)
                       Our Results(4.0% MoE):        Election Results:
  Adam Hasner:            41%                           45%
  Lois Frankel:           59%                           55%

Our earlier active voter and registered voter polls had both showed much smaller leads for Frankel, 
as did several other polls on this race. The early voter poll showed a higher percentage of 
Democrats voting for Frankel.


U.S. Congress District 26 - Rivera(R) vs. Garcia(D)
                       Our Results(4.0% MoE):        Election Results:
  David Rivera:           44%                           43%
  Joe Garcia:             53%                           54%
  Jose Peixoto:            2%                            1%
  Angel Fernandez:         1%                            2%

Our earlier polls on this race were exclusively conducted in English, but in the early voter poll 
we conducted the poll in both English and Spanish. This lead to a much more representative sample 
of Hispanic voters that ended up being very accurate.


Florida House District 65 - Nehr(R) vs. Zimmermann(D)
                       Our Results(4.9% MoE):        Election Results:
  Peter Nehr              51%                           47%
  Carl Z Zimmerman      49%                           53%

The four polls of this race that we conducted over the two months before the election showed a 
consistent trend of Zimmerman steadily gaining support. The final election results show the 
continuation of that trend.


Florida House District 68 - Farkas(R) vs. Dudley(D) vs. Weidner(N)
                       Our Results(5.1% MoE):        Election Results:
  Frank Farkas            45%                           44%
  Dwight Dudley           50%                           51%
  Matthew D. Weidner       5%                            5%

This was a close race until three weeks before the election when Dudley pulled ahead.


Pinellas Sheriff - Gualtieri(R) vs. Swope(D)
                       Our Results(3.5% MoE)         Election Results
  Bob Gualtieri           60%                           59%
  Scott Swope             40%                           40%

The spread in this race stayed consistent from two months out until election day.


Pinellas Commission District 1 - Brickfield(R) vs. Long(D)
                       Our Results(3.5% MoE)         Election Results
  Neil Brickfield:        48%                           45%
  Janet C. Long:          51%                           55%

This was a very close race until a few weeks before the election when Long started to pull ahead 
after the Tampa Bay Times endorsement of Long in this race.


Pinellas Commission District 3 - Bostock(R) vs. Justice(D)
                       Our Results(3.5% MoE)         Election Results
  Nancy Bostock:          49%                           48%
  Charlie Justice:        51%                           52%

Justice maintained a small lead and kept that small lead throughout our polling of this race and
into the election.


We are very happy with how our polling performed in this election, and I would like to thank all of our new political clients from around Pinellas County and the state of Florida for letting us help you with your campaigns this election season.


Matt Florell
President - Fextel, Inc.

 
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